Russia’s Birth Rate Dynamics Forecasting

This article covers contemporary issues of Russia’s population reproduction, their causes and the state policy aimed to overcome the same. The urgency to fulfill the task related to assessment of the most probable future dynamics of Russia’s population birth rate in the context of a low child-woman ratio, and subject to an impact of pronatalist policies implemented by the state, is justified. In order to fulfill the task based on the crude birth rate behavior probability distribution function, a probabilistic assessment of future dynamics of Russia’s population reproduction has been carried out. Based on a modernized method suggested by Hurst, the following two forecasting paths of the crude birth rate dynamics have been built: the first path conforms to the scenario where a value of the crude birth rate is to tend to values between 8–10.5 births/1,000 people (probability is 0.182), in particular, through a negative external impact, the second path is to tend to values between 13–16.5 births/1,000 people (probability — 0.618), in particular, through a positive external impact. Notwithstanding that these scenarios significantly differ from each other, the paths of the crude birth rate dynamics for 2015–2041, corresponding to the reliable prediction time, forecasted according to the abovementioned scenarios, are virtually identical. The analysis of the findings allowed for the conclusion that the state demographic policy is not capable of having a significant impact on the future dynamics of the birth rate, substantially determined by the current situation and conjuncture shifts. These conclusions confirm the view prevailing in academic circles and suggesting that the state regulation of Russia’s demographic situation should be primarily focused on the improvement in health and a rise in the life expectancy of the population.The research has been prepared with the support of the Russian Science Foundation grant (Project No. 14-18-00574 “Information and analytic systems “Anticrisis”: diagnostics of the regions, threat evaluation and scenario forecasting to preserve and reinforce the welfare of Russia”)

J Theor Biol

The goal of many vaccination programs is to attain the population immunity above which pathogens introduced by infectious people (e.g., travelers from endemic areas) will not cause outbreaks. Using a simple meta-population model, we demonstrate that, if sub-populations either differ in characteristics affecting their basic reproduction numbers or if their members mix preferentially, weighted average sub-population immunities cannot be compared with the proportionally-mixing homogeneous population-immunity threshold, as public health practitioners are wont to do. Then we review the effect of heterogeneity in average per capita contact rates on the basic meta-population reproduction number. To the extent that population density affects contacts, for example, rates might differ in urban and rural sub-populations. Other differences among sub-populations in characteristics affecting their basic reproduction numbers would contribute similarly. In agreement with more recent results, we show that heterogeneous preferential mixing among sub-populations increases the basic meta-population reproduction number more than homogeneous preferential mixing does. Next we refine earlier results on the effects of heterogeneity in sub-population immunities and preferential mixing on the effective meta-population reproduction number. Finally, we propose the vector of partial derivatives of this reproduction number with respect to the sub-population immunities as a fundamentally new tool for targeting vaccination efforts.CC999999/Intramural CDC HHS/United States2017-12-11T00:00:00Z26375548PMC572392

Оцінка впливу соціальних програм на динаміку народжуваності в Україні

Стаття присвячена проблемам соціальних інвестицій держави у відтворення населення в Україні. Проаналізовано особливості реалізації соціальних програм, що спрямовані на захист сімей з дітьми в Україні, оцінено сумарний обсяг їх фінансування та запропоновано загальні підходи до оцінки їх ефективності. Окреслені подальші шляхи вдосконалення процесу соціального інвестування у відтворення населення в Україні.Статья посвящена проблемам социальных инвестиций государства в воспроизводство населения Украины. Проанализированы особенности реализации социальных программ, направленных на защиту семей с детьми; оценен суммарный объем их финансирования, предложены общие подходы к оценке их эффективности. Обозначены дальнейшие пути усовершенствования процесса социального инвестирования в воспроизводство населения в Украине.The article is devoted to problems of social investments of the state in the population reproduction in Ukraine. Theoretical approaches to defining social and demographic investments are investigated, while the components of investments are determined. The Ukrainian peculiarities of realization of social programs, targeted on protection of families with children, are analyzed; the summary scale of their funding is estimated. The general approaches to estimating the efficiency of the state efforts on pronatalist policy are presented in the context of fertility increase and social protection of families with children. The further ways of improving the process of social investing in population reproduction in Ukraine are outlined, while importance of other types of social investments (including education, health care, housing programs) is grounded

Pensions containing allowance paid by children – why and how?

The present pension systems allocate only a minimal allowance (about 1 or 2% of the total pension budget) to those who raise children, endangering the reproduction of the population and leading to an ageing society. Here we suggest a pension model based on the expenses of child-raising families amounting to 10 to 15% of the total amount of pensions (about 25% of mothers’ pensions). The financial source of this system can be a separated and well-defined ratio of children’s pension contributions paid for at least 13 years until the age of 37. Mothers reaching the retirement age could obtain the suggested pre-determined amount of pension supplement (approximately HUF 140 thousand per children tailored to the demographic and economic conditions in Hungary). According to the financial balance of our model, the net effect on the state pension budget would be negligible. While the total amount of the pension budget with the changes concerning mothers would largely remain unchanged (according to the forecasts), its structure could significantly favour families raising children and it could have a positive impact on the social preferences of the population.fertility, population reproduction, human capital accumulation, pension system

Економічні механізми міграцій та природного відтворення населення:концепція демоекономічної ніші

В статье изложена авторская концепция демоэкономической ниши как демографической емкости национальной экономики. Теоретически обоснованы методические подходы к оценке ее динамики, предложены соответствующие показатели. На этой основе конкретизированы экономические механизмы, стимулирующие масштабные миграции и изменения режимов воспроизводства населения.The author’s concept of demoeconomical niche as a demographic capacity of national economy is expounded in the article. Methodological approaches of its dynamics estimation are theoretically grounded. The evaluation indexes are offered. The economic mechanisms of international migration stimulation and of population reproduction сhanges are specified on this basis

Simulation of population’s reproductive behaviour patterns within an agent-oriented regional model

The study focuses on the research on how the unevenness of demographic transition affects the social and demographic characteristics and their dynamics of a region’s population. The research was conducted by means of computerized experiments (simulations) set within an original agent-oriented model. The study features the structure of the model represented by an artificial society, with its members (agents) being attributed their personal characteristics in such a way that they would imitate the gender and age of the region’s population. The agents are divided into two groups which differ in their reproductive strategy. Agents from Group 1 adhere to the traditional strategy characterized by a high birth rate, while the agents from Group 2 follow the modern strategy resulting in a markedly low birth rate. With the application of probabilistic mechanisms, the natural birth-death processes are imitated within the model. The extinction of agents occurs in accordance with the death rates adjusted for age and gender but remaining the same for the whole population. In the model, the appearance of new agents (birth of children) results from the choice made by reproductive-aged female agents, and their choice is influenced by the subjective traits determined by their group. The age and social structure of the regional population are generally formed as a result of the aggregation of particular agents’ activity. The model has been applied in a range of experiments on forecasting the number and structure of the population in an assumed region. The results showed that despite the apparent simplification of the reality, the developed agent-oriented model correctly represents both the initial condition of the regional population including the gender, age and social structure and the dynamics of the population’s basic characteristics.The research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project № 14-18-01968)